Will Scotland leave the UK?

By | August 26, 2022

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The world has changed since #Brexit. Lawmakers in #Scotland are pushing for a brand-new referendum on independence. So, is this how #Britain ends?

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[Music] What does it mean to be scottish in the 21st century it’s a question that is Still pending in 2014 scotland held a Referendum on independence it did so With the explicit support of the british Government which issued a section 30 Order delegating provisional authority To the scottish parliament to hold such A referendum the scottish government at The time described the vote as a once in A generation opportunity About 4.2 million scots representing 85 Percent of scotland’s population cast Their ballots and rejected independence By 55 To 45 Scotland’s future it seemed was decided In the union it would remain However the world has changed since Brexit and both scottish and english Nationalists feel reinvigorated now Lawmakers in edinburgh are pushing for a Brand new referendum on independence a Date has been set for october 2023 but a Lot of legal economic and political Issues remain unaddressed nevertheless Scottish lawmakers feel confident enough To push ahead so is this how britain Ends is this how scotland breaks away And redefines what it means to be Scottish [Music] Today’s video is sponsored by ground

News a comparative news platform i use To get a complete perspective on issues Like scottish independence ground news Helps expose bias and blind spots in News coverage if you’ve been following Caspian report for a while you know i’m An advocate of the app and website i Highly encourage you to check it out as A resource at ground.news Caspian let me give you a brief rundown Scotland’s new mandate for an Independent referendum was shared far And wide 120 articles no less most of The sources were from the uk and the us With the bias distribution leaning Slightly to the left now media Algorithms tend to push polarizing Content to generate clicks and most People are unknowingly stuck in their Respective information bubbles but Interestingly canadian media outlets are Also keenly following the scottish Process canada’s alberta region holds Some separatist tendencies and Scotland’s future is likely to shape Regional politics in such places The tools made available by ground news Allow me to easily see how media outlets Are framing the scottish issue which Gives me a more nuanced perspective on Things Ground news is supported by their Subscribers to stay informed on issues From all over the world go to

Ground.news Caspian and subscribe for unlimited Access for less than one dollar a month And support a small team of media Outsiders working to make the news more Transparent The fact that scotland and england are Part of the same state is remarkable Considering their history for centuries Scotland existed as a thorn in england’s Backside england possessed a Geopolitical imperative to unify the Island of great britain and to that end Conquered wales in the 13th century but A combination of internal political Differences including english civil wars And scottish geography prevented england From dominating scotland by force in Fact from the 13th century to the 16th Century every scottish and french ruler Faithfully renewed what became known as The old alliance aligning scottish Interests with that of france england’s Mortal enemy at the time Three times in the 14th century france Financed the raising of scottish armies To invade england while in the 16th Century french intervention saved Scotland from the depredations of the English monarch henry viii Ultimately england never succeeded in Conquering scotland instead scotland Agreed to join the newly united kingdom In 1707 not because of geopolitical

Advantage possessed by its southern Neighbor but because of its own economic Incompetence You see at the end of the 17th century Scotland embarked on a scheme to Establish a new colony on the isthmus of Panama at the gulf of darien it was an Ambitious project and the isthmus of Panama turned out to be one of the most Important strategic areas in the world But in the late 1600s scotland let alone Human civilization did not possess the Requisite technology to conquer such Fierce nature The abject failure of the darien venture Sent the scottish lowlands into Financial ruin as between one quarter And half of the scottish national wealth Was pledged to and lost in this single Filled colonial initiative Darien was not the only reason for the Acts of union which declared that as of 1707 and forever after scotland and England should unite into a single Kingdom Even so there can be no doubt that for Scotland uniting with england was an act Of economic expediency many scots Detested the idea even at the time with Violent unrest and mobs marking the Lead-up to unification Nevertheless the scottish leadership Decided the union was in their best Interest and economic priorities carried

The day Fast forward to 2016 the united kingdom Held a nationwide referendum this time To decide whether the country should Remain in the european union Remain was expected to prevail but Instead 52 of british voters opted for Leave There was just one small problem the Constituent states of the uk did not Agree unanimously on this critical issue England and wales both with a 53 percent Majority voted to leave the european Union while northern ireland with a 56 Majority voted to remain In scotland pro-european sentiment was Even stronger a remarkable 62 percent of scots voted remain against 38 opting for leave This created two problems for the future Of the united kingdom the first was that It undermined the uk’s democratic Legitimacy Scotland and northern ireland’s fates Were being decided against their popular Will Even more serious however was that the Economic logic of the uk was no longer a Foregone conclusion for over three Centuries scotland benefited Immeasurably from its union with england In a sense scotland entered into a union With england at precisely the right Moment

Within 50 years of the acts of union the Industrial revolution began in england Whose geographic position and access to Coal and other critical resources gave It an early advantage within a century Of the acts of union france underwent a Massive political revolution and Witnessed the rise of napoleon whose Eventual defeat left britain Unchallenged in europe for generations Scotland went from being a backward part Of an isolated island to a critical Component of arguably the most powerful Empire the world had ever seen By virtue of its relationship with England scotland was on the winning side Of both world wars and though edinburgh Traded its independence for wealth and Power for most of the arrangement Scotland had no reason to doubt that it Was profiting from the union despite its Occasional shortcomings Now three centuries later the benefits Of the acts of union are not as evident As in the past This is not to discount the immense Economic value the united kingdom Accounts for almost two-thirds of Scottish trade one london school of Economic study has concluded that Independence would cost scotland between 6.3 percent and 8.7 Of its long-term income per capita and Be two to three times worse than brexit

To the scottish economy There are also profoundly sticky issues To work out like what share of the British national debt scotland would Take on and whether scotland would Remain in a currency union and keep the Pound and what percentage of the north Seas oil and gas wealth scotland could Expect to enjoy By all metrics independence would be Disastrous for the scottish economy Especially in the short term Even the most zealous scottish Nationalists admit as much Having said that brexit is also a Disaster for the scottish economy one Whose impacts are only now being felt And over which scotland has no control Moreover the scottish government Recently published a paper comparing the Uk to its neighbors in europe namely Denmark sweden finland norway iceland Switzerland austria belgium and the Netherlands and found that by almost Every metric the uk has underperformed Relative to its european peers Whether gdp per capita income inequality Poverty rates social mobility worker Productivity gross expenditure on Research and development and more the uk Performs worst or close to worst Scottish leaders can and are making a Case that in the long term the Short-term pains of independence is

Worth not just the pride of national Self-determination but is a better Economic bet as well Whether the argument is sound only History will be able to tell but the Point is scotland can make this argument Now with a straight face It is not ridiculous to think that Scotland’s economic prospects are better As part of the 18 trillion dollar Eurozone than the 2.7 trillion dollar United kingdom According to the polls scotland is still Undecided about its political future Support for independence swelled Slightly above 50 In the years following brexit but recent Polls from sources like the sunday times Yougov ipsos murray and the scotsman all Show that more scots favor remaining in The union than independence Those figures however are somewhat Misleading support for independence and For union ebb and flow but stay in a Relatively stable equilibrium a Significant number of scottish voters Representing between 7 to 15 of the Electorate identify as undecided and Here is where england cannot seem to Help itself Liz trust for instance recently said the Proper approach to dealing with scotland Was to ignore it and its attention Seeking leader nicola sturgeon

England ridicules scotland at its own Peril One of the reasons scotland opted to Remain in 2014 was because the british Government felt confident enough in the Union to allow the referendum to take Place London’s reluctance to sanction another Referendum reveals a genuine fear that Scotland might opt to leave which would Be disastrous not just for scotland but For england as well London risks increasing support among The undecided scots if another Referendum occurs Feelings of national identity are Emotional and visceral economic Self-interest can moderate such feelings But if as proud and ancient a nation as Scotland feels its identity and Democratic agency is being trampled Polls could shift unexpectedly and Sharply as they did when england voted Surprisingly to leave the european union Which Leads to the 2 trillion pound question Can scotland become independent or hold An independence referendum as its Leaders have promised by next year A house of commons paper examining that Very subject is no less than 99 pages And concludes the issue is uncertain the Supreme court of the united kingdom must Decide whether scotland’s referendum is

Within its competence seeing as the British government seems unlikely to Grant another section 30 order If the supreme court decides that Scotland does not have that authority The scottish national party could opt to Hold an illegal referendum a la Catalonia in 2017 But it appears the snp has already opted For a different tactic choosing instead To fight the next general uk election as A de facto referendum on scottish Independence All things considered legalities are Essential but they are also subject to Change the british irish union of 1800 Was also supposed to last forever on Paper only for the political situation To change and for ireland to reclaim Independence a century later if a Majority of scots want independence and Make that known whether through a legal Referendum an illegal referendum an Overwhelming majority for the snp in the Next uk general election or a massive Campaign of peaceful civil disobedience They will find a legal justification to Make it so The most pressing issue is whether Scottish national pride stoked by anger Over brexit english contempt and british Economic underperformance creates the Necessary foundation for scots to demand Their independence despite the legal

Economic and political consequences of Such a move The scottish national party is betting It will of course the snp was wrong in 2014 but the world has changed since Then and england knows better than Anyone how sudden nationalist sentiment Can lead to previously unthinkable Outcomes That is the whole reason the uk is Leaving the european union and it would Be ironic if it was also the reason the Uk’s political experiment ends after 315 Years and counting I’ve been your host shivan from caspian Report special thanks to jacob shapiro For researching and writing this paper To learn more about jacob’s work and his Platform cognitive investments visit Www.cognitive.investments In any case thank you for your time and Saul

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