Ukraine going into darkness and cold

By | November 12, 2022

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#Russia is looking to deplete #Ukraine’s power generation capacity ahead of #winter, hoping that the Ukrainian leadership will surrender at the negotiating table.

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Russia has a new strategy in the making It is looking to deplete Ukraine's power Generation capacity ahead of winter Hoping that the resulting blackouts will Convince the Ukrainian leadership to Surrender at the negotiating table since Early October Russia has used high-yield Cruise missiles and iranian-made Loitering Munitions to strike at Ukrainian power stations more than 300 Such attacks have been verified videos On social media show smoke rising from Cities like the nipro live zitomir Kremenchuk Emil nitsky zaparosia and so On the damage is substantial about One-third of Ukraine's power generation Capacity is knocked out about 4 million Civilians have been hit by power cuts And the blackouts have affected the Basic functions of the economy at the Same time Russia is sending waves of Drone attacks to intimidate Kiev from Above combined with the blackouts Putin Hopes to wear down the Ukrainian Population and force zelinski to sue for Peace Routed defeated and facing enormous Territorial losses in Ukraine a Russian Military command is increasingly running Out of options they want to win Regardless of the costs and in such Desperate times it does not matter Whether the cat is black brown or white As long as it catches mice

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It is a flawed strategy deeply so the Idea traces its roots to World War One When Italian General giulio duhay Theorized that air power could break the Enemy morale duhei identified five Strategic Target types for aerial Warfare industry transport Infrastructure Communications and Government supposedly by striking at These five targets the will of the enemy Population would demoralize and Civilians would demand their government To surrender or cut deals to abandoned Territory Air Force sources were still a New thing back then and duhay's Theory Fired up the imagination it fit the get Tough narrative but it also Inadvertently achieved one Primal desire Revenge whenever conflict comes close to Home societies will want revenge for the Actions of their Rivals thus public Punishment and political Victory sat at The heart of duhay's air power Theory And every major power expanded its Air Forces with the assumption that Attacking civilians was the key to Winning modern conflicts the air power Theory directly and indirectly inspired Civilian bombing campaigns during World War One World War II and all the armed Conflicts that played out during the Cold War and yet there was one flaw to The theory never in history has there Been a nation that under the pressure

From hostile bombardment protested Against its government to pursue peace It has never happened German bombers killed more than 40 000 People in London during World War II While the American Air Raids on Japan Killed more than 700 000 civilians yet Neither Nation pressured its government To surrender during the Vietnam war America dropped more than 260 million Bombs on Laos while during the Afghan War the Soviet Union essentially Depopulated the countryside through a Scorched-earth campaign and yet no Civilian Uprising ever took root in Afghanistan or Laos quite the opposite In nearly all cases of Civilian bombing The targeted nation was actually Motivated to counter-attack and perceive The collateral damage as a price to pay For sovereignty and Independence Bombing civilian targets is a doomed Strategy it is almost guaranteed to fail Because it actually strengthens the Resolve of the targeted Society Russia's new air strategy to destroy Ukraine's power supply ahead of winter Is no different by destroying the Electrical power of the civilian economy Other civilian utilities are also Affected including water supplies and Centralized heating so the damage Multiplies across Society Putin hopes that by cutting off the

Ukrainian population from water Electricity and heating zelenski will Concede that the negotiating table the Russian Air Force is working around the Clock to make that goal happen almost One-third of Ukraine's power generation Capacity has been knocked out already But Russia's strategy is also aimed at The West first and foremost it is meant To instigate a new wave of refugees from Ukraine into Europe officials in Kiev Have asked Ukrainian refugees abroad not To return this winter because the energy Network cannot endure at the same time Moscow looks to increase Europe's Financial costs of supporting Ukraine Historically Ukraine has enjoyed an Energy Surplus now however it has Started importing energy from Europe While its treasury is stretched thinly To pay for the transaction Ukraine needs To borrow between three and four billion Dollars every month from the IMF to make It through the coming winter this sum Could quickly inflate when considering Additional costs like social and Infrastructure needs meanwhile zelenski Has asked foreign donors for 55 billion Dollars to cover the budget deficit Including 17 billion dollars to repair The energy infrastructure taken together These are some serious numbers and European lawmakers will find it Difficult to justify their commitments

To Ukraine while their own constituents Paid the financial price and yet Ultimately Russia's strategy will fail History has plenty of examples but the Most similar is the Gulf War the United States disrupted more than 90 percent of The Iraqi power grid leaving millions of Iraqis without power but regardless of How badly Iraqi Society was wound did They did not yield no protest or Uprising took place against saddam's Rule The Russian command is using a tried and Failed Playbook dozens of energy Installations have thus far been Targeted but a nationwide blackout in Ukraine is unlikely Russia is believed To be lacking in Munitions and even if It could double its Firepower and Maintain the attacks it would do no good According to a Nationwide poll conducted By the Kiev International Institute of Sociology at least 86 percent of Respondents support Ukraine's continued Counter-offensive in spite of the recent Airstrikes against civilian Targets in Short there is no reason to assume that Russia's bombardment of Civilian targets Or energy infrastructure will convince Ukrainians to give up now air power is Still a decisive Factor but only when it Is used in combination with ground Forces to achieve military objectives Rather than punishing civilians just

Compare that tactics of the Russian Air Force to that of Ukraine the way to use An Air Force effectively comes down to The following Ground Forces need large Numbers to withstand a ground assault Oftentimes forming thick and overlapping Front lines however those large Concentrations make for juicy targets From the air so as a countermeasure Ground forces will disperse across a Wide area to make air strikes less Effective this then however leaves the Thinly stretched Ground Forces Vulnerable to defeat on the ground That's how Ukraine was able to overwhelm The Russian front lines in kharkif Ukrainian forces pin down enemy Contingents While others routed enemy Forces by a pincer move this has been Ukraine's primary strategy in rolling Back Russian forces in the East even the Best dug in Russian troops have been Bested the only tactical difference is That Ukraine tilted the battlefield in Its favor not by use of an Air Force but By himars missile systems the United States has provided Ukraine with 16 Hemars with another 18 on the way Precision Weaponry has advanced Substantially in recent years it is more Affordable and readily available modern Air power can destroy large Concentrations of enemy Ground Forces But also take out smaller and even

Individual Targets on the battlefield When applied correctly as Ukraine does The himars have the Firepower and Effectiveness of several F-16 fighter Jets but since the himars operate on the Ground they enjoy greater flexibility in Coordinating with Ukrainian ground Forces and thus can be used against the Russians in any given area as a result Ukrainian troops have been able to Successfully encircle and overwhelm Their Russian counterparts in hake if And places elsewhere so while the Russians employ an old flawed air Strategy the ukrainians are going by the New combined arms Playbook And while Russia can bomb Ukrainian Cities and civilians as much as it wants It will not change the battlefield Russia's strategic failures in Ukraine Cannot be fixed by Brute Force Eighth months into the war and it's safe To say that Russia could have done Things differently on many occasions Nothing it did was inevitable but Everything has since become irreversible After your host children from Caspian Report if you like what we do comment Like And subscribe thank you for Watching and so

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